Resolving the Banking Transactions’ Tax Crisis

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 3rd August 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-08-03/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/03-Aug-2015/resolving-banking-transactions-tax-crisis)

Resolving the Banking Transactions’ Tax Crisis

Prof Dp

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

As discussed on these pages before the controversial decision of levying a withholding tax on all banking transactions for non-filers (0.3% till September and increasing to 0.6% thereafter) with the underlying aim of broadening the tax base has not been able to gain acceptance in the presence of serious flaws within the taxation system along-with prevalent corrupt practices. Even if one ignores the increase in the inflationary pressures in the economy and the penalization of ordinary salaried class, the reservations of traders alone are sufficient to make this highly controversial. The disagreement on this matter has now reached a dead-lock between traders and the incumbent Government. So exactly what are their reservations and how can they be possibly addressed? Is there any possible solution for the same?

First of all the withholding tax introduced is more of a transactional tax then an income tax. But more importantly the issue at hand is one of a lack of trust in the system. Not only do the traders fear to be targeted unfairly once they bring themselves in the system to avoid the transactional tax, they haven’t seen the remedial procedures effectively providing relief in an event of witch-hunting by FBR either. Many economists are of the view that introducing new taxes to compensate for FBR’s failures is simply not the answer to Pakistan’s economic and tax woes. The reasons for FBR’s failures are numerous ranging from dissatisfaction amongst FBR’s employees to structural inefficiencies in the taxation system. They’re however not the topic for today and will be discussed at another time.

For now the issue of the trust deficit particularly in the business community is discussed. Besides very high rates of both direct and indirect taxes, the harassment by FBR and blockade of due refunds are often used as tactics by FBR officials to meet their targets. This actually puts off many genuine businessmen who would otherwise like to contribute their dues to the society. Therefore they claim to resort to the alternate in doing charity and stressing that they evade getting within the ambit of the formal documentation to avoid the horrible experiences many of their fellow traders have endured in their dealings with the FBR. None of these issues are of a nature which cannot be positively addressed. Infact this writer has repeatedly proposed several structural reforms including the ones addressing these very issues.

For example the policy of volume over rates can be pursued. It’d entail reducing all the taxation rates to single digits making it economically prohibitive to evade due to the higher costs of engaging professionals as well as fulfilling the demands of the corrupt officials within the tax apparatus. The focus will be to broaden the tax base using indirect taxes for this purpose while direct taxes can be applied on a progressive basis, increasing with the income brackets. If tunnel vision can be shunned then the positive potential of this can be envisioned. Currently less than 0.5% of the population files a return. The number has declined over past four years despite all the “efforts” for broadening the tax base. If this number can be increased to several millions with a consequential increase in the tax base and tax payers, one can envision the positive impact on tax collections.

It’ll be interesting for the readers to know that the honorable finance minister Mr. Ishaq Dar himself used to be a proponent of this proposal during his days of serving the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Surprisingly, now that he’s in a position to actually enforce this much needed reform, he’s shying away from it. Moreover the effective implementation of the relief mechanisms and laws can help assure the tax payer. The time limits for deciding the disagreements should also be enforced. For a change, the tax officials can be trained to respect the tax payer instead of treating them as an assumed criminal. Such measures can go a long way to win over the trust of the taxpayers in the system.

Even in the past negotiations between traders and Government officials, the issue of the undue nuances caused by FBR to genuine businessmen resulting in most businesses staying out of the system to avoid these troubles has been raised. Similarly promises were made with traders to review the exorbitantly high rates of withholding taxes deducted in advance. Some of these taxes are treated as non-adjustable even in case of a loss. Even those that are considered adjustable are extremely hard to recover as the FBR seems to have an unwritten rule regarding refusing even the genuine refunds to loss-making businesses when they need their cash the most. However the same FBR seems content to issue refunds to or defer recovery of tens of millions from influential parties. Such behavior doesn’t instill the trust in the business community.

The latest on this issue is the breakdown of the negotiations between Government and traders resulting in strikes been called and social media campaigns been setup. The reduced rate of 0.3% till September has also been turned down by the business community for the reasons discussed above. A successful strike was already observed with the traders threatening to go all out towards a civil disobedience. Government on the other hand has ordered investigations into the affairs of top leadership of traders.

Possible ramifications of this standoff can be damaging for the national economy and the issue needs to be resolved amicably. One possible solution can involve doing away with this transactional tax and reducing the withholding and sales tax rates immediately pending a review of other structural reforms in return for voluntary registration of a minimum number of businessmen. There are many other possible proposals to this effect too. The ball is now in Governments’ court to decide whether it is serious about introducing reforms to win over the tax payer and broaden the tax base or if it simply believes in coercive measures which may seem beneficial in meeting short-term targets but will surely cause damage in the longer-term.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Minimum & Banking Transactions’ Tax

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 27th July 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-07-27/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/27-Jul-2015/minimum-banking-transactions-tax)

Minimum & Banking Transactions’ Tax

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

With the stated aims of supporting the entrepreneurship culture, facilitating businesses and increasing the numbers within the ambit of formally documented economy, one would expect steps by policymakers to incentivize the masses to this effect. Notwithstanding several positive developments, some recent steps have actually served in contradiction of the above aims of the incumbent Government.

Before diving into the specifics let’s briefly discuss some important building blocks. First of all, most of the modern economies have moved away from been solely or greatly based upon agriculture or manufacturing to a greater focus on service sector, then be it financial, IT, educational, telecommunication or other services within this sector. Even those with a large base of agriculture or manufacturing have modernized to include service industry as a significant part of their overall GDP. It is therefore essential for a successful modern economy to promote service sector with the underlying GDP growth and employment opportunities acting as prime motivators. Similarly in a country like ours where, as per some studies, the black monies and illegal economy outweigh the documented formal one, reforms are required to incentivize people to come within the ambit of documented economy.

With the above been clarified let us move onto some extremely important issues with serious ramifications for our economy. First up a minimum tax on service companies has been levied from fiscal year 2015-16. But what does a minimum tax mean? For our tax dilettante readers, it means that the advance tax paid by service companies will not be refunded in the event of them ending up in losses at the financial year end. This is not only unjust but would have serious negative implications for the service sector growth. Moreover it also has the potential to entice this sector towards “creative accounting” to avoid paying any more taxes then the minimum they have to since they will not be getting any refunds due to them in the past in their hour of need.

This “creative accounting” argument was actually floated as an initial reason for attempting to introduce the minimum tax on service sector several years ago under pressure from international lenders. This was done in a controversial manner despite an existing section of the Income Tax Ordinance 2001 already dealing with the minimum tax on companies. The matter led to serious misgivings from the tax payers and after long heated debates the last finance bill included a proposal to restore the original position before the controversial insertion in section 153. The original position was that any tax paid in advance was adjustable against the final tax liability. Unfortunately at the last moment the policy makers again succumbed to certain pressures and instead introduced the minimum tax. In doing so the long term impact on tax net and GDP growth was ignored in favor of the short term cash accumulation to meet annual targets.

Several responsible officials have shared in private that this amendment was based on the underlying assertion that all mobile companies, a sub-sector within the service industry, were preparing falsified accounting records to avoid due tax and thereby causing losses to the national exchequer. Even if we accept the notion, this observation was based upon a sub-sector only and it was therefore inherently unjustified to “punish” an entire sector for that. Moreover this was equal to declaring that since some- murderers are able to deceive with the judicial system therefore all accused from now on would have a body part amputated as a presumed minimum punishment. Not very just, is it?

Instead an overhaul of the system with effective implementation along-with introduction of stringent penal clauses would have served the purpose more effectively. Last but not the least, even the existing audit provision, if implemented properly was sufficient to deal with the problem. We therefore propose and expect the policy makers to review this matter positively with a strategic view of expanding the GDP and broadening the tax-base rather than diminishing it. Volume over margin is the way forward for a progressive taxation regime.

Next up is perhaps the most controversial issue of the imposition of advance tax on banking transactions by non-filers. After a lot of uproar from the business community, the negotiations with finance ministry officials resulted in the concession that the levy of 0.6 percent withholding tax was reduced to 0.3 percent till end of September 2015. Any non-filers after that date would be liable to the rate of 0.6 percent again. However, a section of business community has rejected this and is planning to force a change by strikes and protests.

While the underlying aim seems fairly positive in that the non-filers are incentivized to come within the ambit of documented economy, there are certain qualifications to that. Firstly many individuals particularly salaried ones get their tax deducted at source and as such do not file income tax returns. This is despite them paying more than their due shares of taxes if all the indirect taxes on their consumption are taken into account. A lack of awareness and the bureaucratic difficulties within our taxation apparatus are the biggest reason for this trend. Secondly the lack of trust in the authorities and Governments by the business community is a big barrier.

Some of the concerns leading to the lack of trust are seemingly genuine and warrant corrective actions. A case in point is the undue relief given to influential tax payers while the ordinary one having to waste material resources in order to get their genuine rights like refunds due to them. Moreover the undue nuances caused to even genuine businessmen by certain elements within the taxation apparatus cements the belief that it’s beneficial to stay out of the system to avoid these troubles. Moreover taxing every transaction over Rs. 50,000 at 0.6%, when aggregated, takes the total cost to inexplicable levels making it attractive to avoid banking channels for those not bound to. The crux is that trying to impose a reform like taxing banking transactions without addressing the inherent limitations and problems of the taxation system may not be the most effective way to address the issue of widening the tax-net and should be re-considered.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Finance Act 2015-16: Dissecting major reforms – II

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 21st July 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-07-21/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/21-Jul-2015/finance-act-2015-16-dissecting-major-reforms-part-ii)

Finance Act 2015-16: Dissecting major reforms – II

Prof Dp

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

We’ll continue to discuss some important reforms carrying on from where we left in the first part on the above topic on 13th July and conclude the write-up today. The need for a structural overhaul has been lauded for years now. While many concrete proposals for reforms continue to fall on deaf ears, a few have been implemented in the finance act. This indeed is commendable and something to expand upon.

In our budget proposals we have suggested the relevant authorities to allow the use of CNIC as both the NTN (National Tax Number) and STRN (Sales Tax Registration Number) on these pages. Section 181 has now declared that for individuals the CNIC will be used as the NTN. Although it is only for individuals as of now but it is a step in the right direction. By removing the hurdles in tax registrations by allowing the above mentioned proposal not only can the FBR expand the tax-net but also assist in promoting the entrepreneur culture by removing unnecessary formalities.

Similarly another positive reform has been introduced in section 114 of the Income Tax Ordinance 2001. The requirement of obtaining prior approval from the Commissioner for filing a revised return is now dispensed away with if the revised return is filed within 60 days of filing of the original return. This would remove the long-standing complaint of many tax payers faced when a genuine mistake resulted in tax losses to them.

Yet another change introduced via Finance Act 2015-16 is regarding the income earned from property. Now, any expenditure incurred whether wholly or exclusively for the purposes of deriving rental income including the administration and collection charges shall be admissible as allowable expense with a cap of 6% of rent chargeable. While it’s a positive move it is certainly not sufficient considering the levels of inflation increasing the repairs and maintenance as well employee costs.

Moving onto another significant change we’ll briefly discuss Section 37A and Division VII of Part 1 of the First Schedule dealing with Capital Gains Tax on securities disposed off. A revised status of tax on Capital Gains on disposal of ‘securities’ under section 37A has been prescribed as below:

         Holding period                            Tax Year

                                                            2016     2015

  • < 12 months                               15%      12.5%
  • 12 months to < 24 months          12.5%   10%
  • 24 months to < 48 months            7.5%     0%
  • > 48 months                                  0%        0%

This revision is multi-dimensional. Firstly the rates have been revised upwardly while at the same time the holding period for taxable gains has also been increased. This enhancement of holding period will effectively apply retrospectively as gains for holding period between 24 to 48 months which were exempt from tax prior to Finance Act 2015 will now fall under taxable incidence. The motivation for this is to incentivize investors to hold onto their investments for longer while at the same time trying to balance off avoiding disillusioning the small investor. How much has the finance ministry succeeded in this will only be reliably known with the passage of time and the results of the stock markets.

Next up is an extremely important issue with serious ramifications. Minimum tax on service companies is that hotly contested issue. Under pressure from international lenders, Government of Pakistan decided to introduce a controversial insertion in section 153 few years back. The way this was done raised serious questions as there were arguments that despite an existing section dealing with the issue the insertion was done against the prescribed way and even leaving the existing provisions intact, hence creating a gulf of confusion. Furthermore a series of conflicting SROs were then issued further complicating the matter.

As per the insertion introduced, despite the existing section 113 dealing with minimum tax on service companies, the corporate service companies were made liable to a minimum tax. What this meant was that even if any company in the sector incurred losses they’d not be able to claim a refund of any tax already paid by them. The reason this is problematic is that service companies particularly during startup years are susceptible to losses. This led to calls of review and resulted in Clause 79 in Part IV of the Second Schedule being added to clarify the matter and declare that minimum tax would not be liable on service companies. The implication was in effect from tax year 2012 onwards.

The initial proposal in finance bill 2015 was to clarify the matter since 2009 but instead the government decided to introduce the minimum tax on service companies from tax year 2015 onwards while the clause 79 mentioned above was also deleted. This has led to serious reservations by corporate sector and is part of the package being negotiated between finance ministry officials and traders.

Furthermore a minimum tax of 2% has been levied on land developers. This 2% shall be levied on the value of the land as notified by the authorities for stamp duty. This would increase the revenues for the exchequer and can be seen as an indication of the policy direction.

We hope that the policy makers would also consider our other proposals in future budgets for the betterment of economy and that these write-ups have been enlightening to our readers. We shall continue to apprise our readers on relevant developments in the future too.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Finance Act 2015-16: Dissecting major reforms – I

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 13th July 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-07-13/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/13-Jul-2015/finance-act-2015-16-dissecting-major-reforms)

Finance Act 2015-16: Dissecting major reforms – I

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

The finance bill for financial year 2015-16 was passed by the National Assembly with some amendments and released as the Finance Act 2015-16. The opposition’s walkout on 23rd June 2015 allowed the finance ministry officials an easy outing with the Treasury benches rendering their support for granting the approval to the finance bill. There have been positive developments in some areas while much is left to be desired in others. The honorable finance minister explained his constraints in his budget speech when the original finance bill was floated, pointing out to the strong lobbies with vested interests and that the incumbent Government is undertaking reforms in a phased manner. We’ll discuss some major reforms, their impact on businesses and economy as well as the reaction of the impacted segments towards them in this write-up.

This is first of a two part write-ups on the above titled subject aimed to enlighten our readers on some of the least understood aspects of the finance act.

First up is the reduction in tax rate for companies which has been reduced for the tax years 2016, 2017 and 2018 to be 32, 31 and 30 percent of taxable income respectively. This is the fulfillment of the commitment by the incumbent Government to reduce the tax rate for corporate sector to 30 percent by 2018. The move is seen positively and welcomed by the corporate sector. Lowering the tax incidence on corporate sector is viewed as an incentive for this segment.

Interest Free Loans for Solar Tube Wells upto Rs.1 Million for setting up new solar tube wells or replacing the existing tube wells with solar tube wells shall also be provided to small farm owners having landholdings of less than the 12.5 acres economic threshold. This is a positive step aimed to address both the energy crisis impacting the agricultural sector as well as providing some relief to the small farmer as most of the other measures for the agricultural sector seems to be aimed at benefitting large landowners and investors.

Next up is perhaps the most controversial and discussed about yet least understood reform of the imposition of advance tax on banking transactions by non-filers. A lot of hue and cry including strikes by traders has resulted in the original levy of 0.6 percent withholding tax halved to 0.3 percent till end of September 2015 by way of an ordinance promulgated by the President of Pakistan. The original reform required all banking companies to collect advance tax at the rate of 0.6 percent on all transactions from an account either by way of sale of any instrument including demand draft, pay order, etc. and/or transfer of any sum through cheque and other similar manners or clearing interbank transfer through cheques etc which meant that all debits (amounts taken out) of an account shall be liable to this tax.

There are a few important qualifications to this advance tax though. Firstly this is only applicable to non-filers. Secondly the provision will apply only where the sum total of payments for all transactions in an account shall exceed Rs 50,000 in a day. Also this tax will be adjustable against the tax liability if the person files his/her return of income. Furthermore, the onus is on the account holders to inform their banks/financial institutions about their status of being a filer sans which collection will become applicable on their accounts.

Last but not the least, this provision is in addition to the existing provisions of Section 231AA of the Income Tax Ordinance where in all cases (being a filer or non-filer) a collection of tax is made on cash transactions. This effectively means that the new tax will apply to non-cash transactions of non-filers whereas section 231A and 231AA shall continue to apply on cash transactions. The rate of withholding tax on cash withdrawals under section 231A (in case of non-filers) and section 231AA (in case of both filers and non-filers) has been increased from 0.5% to 0.6%.

If we look at this reform from an objective perspective, though cumbersome administratively it incentivize businesses and individuals to come within the ambit of filing tax returns. The objective is to broaden the tax net. However the structural inefficiencies, rampant corruption within most tax authorities and a regressive taxation system all act as a deterrent against becoming a filer. This reform alone does not address all these issues and therefore this context can help us better appreciate the negative reaction from masses particularly businesses instead of simply dismissing their concerns as the prevalent tax avoidance culture.

Another interesting reform is the imposition of a one-time “super tax” for tax year 2015 for the rehabilitation of temporarily displaced persons on all those with income of Rs. 500 million or more as below:

  • (i) banking companies at 4%
  • (ii) all other taxpayers at the rate of 3%

This is an example of a reform pursuing the progressive tax regime by taxing those with higher income to the advantage of the downtrodden sections of the society. If the entire taxation system is revamped with a focus on direct taxation pursuing a progressive tax regime many of the ills facing our revenue generation and thereby economy can be rectified.

We’ll continue with some more interesting amendments, issues and structural reforms introduced by the Finance Act 2015-16 in the second and last part of this writeup.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced Fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and Anti-Money Laundering Expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Budget, Taxation and Reforms – Blue Chip July 2015, 11th Anniversary Edition

The following article has been published in the renowned “Blue Chip” journal as an exclusive Op-Ed on Economy in its 11th Anniversary Edition published in July 2015.

Online Version Link: Blue Chip Article on Economy

Budget, Taxation and Reforms

Prof Dp

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

There were many positive indicators announced by the honorable finance minister, Mr. Ishaq Dar in his latest budget speech. The first one was the growth rate of 4.24% in 2014-15. Despite missing the target growth rate of 5.1% in last fiscal year, it is still a healthy sign when compared to the mere 3% from 2008 to 2013. The significant drop in inflation from 12% to 4.6% was also phenomenal. Fiscal deficit is expected to be brought down to the level of 5% of GDP from the previous level of 5.5%. However, all these were largely due to the significant reduction in global oil prices and the resulting deflation effects rather than the structural reforms and/or economic policies of the policy makers.

Furthermore, the foreign remittances to Pakistan showed an extravagant increase of 16.14%, which is the highest in the region and should be exceptional by any standards. However it would warrant further examination into the origins of the funds as the controversial law sanctioning no tax or questions about origins on foreign remittances has long made the foreign remittances route a heaven for money laundering and legitimizing black money. While legitimate foreign remittances are a great support for developing economies like Pakistan’s, the use of the above mentioned law for legalizing the black money actually costs more to the economy in terms of the lost revenue and the impact of black businesses on related industries.

In view of the above, it was rational to expect the shortcomings to be addressed in the budget including structural reforms in the taxation system pursuing a progressive regime, introduction of economic reforms and improvements in controversial laws hampering the economy. Whether that was the case is examined below along-with some recommendations

As for the reforms in the taxation system, the proportion of indirect and direct taxes has not changed substantially. This alone though is not sufficient as indirect taxes lead to a regressive system where not only are the rich and poor paying equal amount but unequal proportion of their incomes as taxes but it also causes inflation. This results in higher production costs, which leads to declining exports due to the loss of cost competitiveness and missed opportunities.

The government, in its defence points out to the existing trust deficit between the taxpayer and the taxmen which has created a tax avoidance culture in Pakistan. However there is a reason that all developed economies rely more on direct taxes to negate the disadvantages of indirect taxes which far outweigh the benefits to the national exchequer. The approach of using indirect taxes to fill-up government’s coffers has serious negative ramifications.

To make this clear, take the example of fuel. Upto 30% had been routinely charged as an indirect tax on every liter compared to only 13% in the USA. There are several types of indirect taxes levied within Pakistan including customs duty, sales tax, federal excise duty, petroleum levy, gas infrastructure cess, natural gas surcharge, e.t.c. All this focus on indirect taxation leads to inflationary pressures in the economy as increased prices translates into increased cost of production, services and living. The resulting impacts are hyper-inflationary in nature as there is a multiplicative rather than an additive element in the inflation passed-on at every level.

Furthermore the pay-rises are not proportionate to inflation. Only a 7.5% increase has been proposed in the federal budget. This forces people towards unfair means or rely on expensive credit in order to make their ends meet. Similarly finance requirements of businesses also increase. The resulting hyper-inflationary environment and decreased purchasing power leads to higher interest rates which negatively impacts the businesses as many otherwise viable projects become non-feasible. The declining business output results in lower employment opportunities which coupled with the limited money-supply puts recessionary pressures on the market. This ultimately results in the devaluation of the currency which in turn translates into increased foreign debt. As a result, financing costs of the foreign debts increases leading to a higher proportion of GDP being spent on debt financing. All this combined with hyper-inflation drags the already weak economy further back in Pakistan’s case.

It is therefore recommended that the policy makers should seriously consider pursuing a progressive tax regime where wealthy segments of the society are taxed more. Moreover large landowners and the various exempt sectors must be brought within the tax-net and the revenues raised should be utilized to subsidize the weaker segments of society and to support reforms. For example, it’s been suggested to the authorities before that the agriculture sector should be taxed at a reasonable rate, 5%-7% for landowners with holdings over 12.5 acres and the revenue raised should be used to subsidize the water and electricity for the agriculture sector. This would enhance the yield and therefore the GDP. To summarize, the proportion of direct taxes should be increased and reliance on indirect taxes should be minimized. While some exemptions have been withdrawn in the finance bill which is commendable, more needs to be done in this regard.

Also some structural reforms in the taxation system can go a long way to assist the authorities in meeting their revenue targets. One good step is the current budgetary proposal to allow computerized national identity card (CNIC) number to be used as the National Tax Number (NTN). However the proposal for using the CNIC number as Sales Tax Registration Number (STRN) for all citizens has been ignored. Together both these steps could not only make it extremely easy for any Pakistani to start a business having the requisite tax registrations and thereby promoting a culture of entrepreneurship but would also help broaden the tiny existing tax base as the number of filers and ultimately taxpayers are forecasted to increase with the increasing documented nature of the businesses.

Another key reform could have been to decrease the tax rates to make it more feasible to pay taxes with stringent penalties and cost of avoidance acting as a deterrent. The increase in the tax base would more than compensate for the loss from lower rates. Currently Pakistan has one of the lowest tax bases and tax-to-GDP ratios in the region. If implemented this proposal can turn this around and increase them both substantially.

In addition, to restore the faith of the taxpayers a multi-dimensional tax reforms agenda which has been constantly recommended by this writer must be implemented, where:

  • Taxpayers are encouraged and incentivized for paying taxes.
  • Taxpayers are facilitated by making the process easier and fairer, focusing on maximum automation in order to stem out corruption.
  • Instead of increasing the tax rates the tax net is constantly widened.
  • More focus is given to direct taxation.
  • Meaningful tax rebates and reliefs are introduced for the less able sections of the society.
  • A system of proportionate taxation is adopted with more affluent contributing more to the treasury.
  • Certain exempt sectors are brought into the tax-net (subsidies can be given for assisting any under-pressure areas/products).
  • Tax rebates and incentives are introduced to encourage foreign/local investments in key sectors with tax-breaks for transfer of technology, e.t.c. as may be required in a particular sector.
  • Tax money is actually spent on public welfare and infrastructure projects, which will improve the spending capacity and the business environment in Pakistan.
  • The massive corruption in public contracts/projects, now routinely in the range of 40-50% of tender values, is eradicated for better and efficient use of public money through revamping the pay and accountability structures.

Similarly the controversial law allowing foreign remittances to be brought to Pakistan without having to declare the source of origin or pay any taxes has more disadvantages than the benefits it brings. Let’s elaborate this further. As mentioned before, Pakistan saw an increase of 16.14% in foreign remittances from $12.89 billion to $ 14.97 billion in the last fiscal year. What’s interesting is that the remittances in the entire region have seen a much humble growth. Also, the work profile and the resultant pay scales of ex-pats Pakistanis have not been changed drastically. Furthermore, the inflation and cost of living has actually declined for the relatives of ex-pat Pakistanis as per the figures revealed by the finance ministry. Considering all this and the various studies conducted in the past, it can be safely said that a huge chunk of the foreign exchange remittances are actually the black money laundered and then brought back to legitimize the funds and that too tax-free. Now infamous model Ayan Ali is a case in point. We don’t know for sure how many Ayans are currently doing what she was caught for. It is therefore high time that the finance ministry officials give this a serious thought and atleast consider introducing checks about origins of finances to control and curtail the illegal economy hampering Pakistan’s economic development rather than actually assist it for some short-term gains at the cost of longer-term losses.

Pakistan has been blessed with all kinds of terrains and weathers, fertile lands, valuable natural resources, a high proportion of population been young and hardworking with cheap labor availability. A fairer system of taxation coupled with some key reforms culminating into a fairer economic policy can provide the necessary environment to harness the economic potential of Pakistan.

The key reforms outlined above, if properly implemented with a focus to rely on and develop indigenous capabilities, can resolve the current enigma facing the treasury. With the above actually implemented, there is no reason, why Pakistan cannot stand on its own feet and become an economic hub not only for the region but the whole world. Let us hope that our representatives give this all a serious thought while passing the amendments to the federal budget.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

CPEC a Game Changer

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 29th June 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-06-29/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/29-Jun-2015/cpec-a-game-changer)

HNPI declares CPEC a Game Changer

Prof Dp

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the most discussed topics in Pakistan of late. Several aspects of the proposed “super project” have been examined. It is rightly placed as a game changer for not just Pakistan or the region but one with the potential to change the global economic, military and strategic landscape. Before moving ahead on the topic let’s recall that CPEC is a series of projects worth $ 45.6 billion, aimed to connect Gwadar port in Pakistan strategically located on Arabian Sea just outside the Strait of Hormuz, with Northwestern China (Xinjiang) via Khunjrab (last town on the Pakistani side) along-with several development and uplift projects for transportation, energy and technical infrastructure in Pakistan. An extensive development and uplift of road and rail links is envisaged with energy pipelines decorating the “new silk road”.

In simple terms the plan is to provide the world with a new silk road for global trade, places so strategically that it makes it the most cost-effective and quickest route. The port fees, access charges and transportation revenues alone would be worth billions of $ for Pakistan. If proper policies are implemented, the industrial and business developments particularly along the routes can turn Pakistan into a global economic powerhouse.

It was against this backdrop that this writer was honored to be invited by the Mr. Absar Abdul Ali, director of the prestigious Hameed Nizami Press Institute (HNPI) as a keynote speaker to participate on a seminar on the subject. Mian Iftikhar, the head of the Engineers study forum worked extensively with his team to invite a bouquet of experts from various fields. The result was a brilliant seminar which thoroughly covered almost all the aspects relating to CPEC. Though all the speakers were learned and did justice to their subject, Engineer Iftikhar ul Haq and Mrs. Naheed Ghazanfar from UET covered areas largely neglected re CPEC. The latter explained the technical details of the construction and potential of tens of thousands of jobs resulting from the construction projects alone. Her experience of having already worked with Chinese on critical projects came in handy there. In addition to the above the following points were also discussed at the said event.

A common perception has developed amongst the masses of late that CPEC is all about the road network being built to link Gwadar with China. This is not true as one can see from the list of the projects envisioned under CPEC and shared on these pages before by this writer. While undoubtedly the road and rail links are of fundamental and strategic importance with long-term revenue generation potential and the ones which can be the catalyst for a geo-political shift in the region, they are not this project is all about. Infact most of the projects are related to technical and energy infrastructure projects. To put it in perspective, more than 70% of the proposed $ 45.6 billion investment is expected to be spent on these projects.

In addition to the benefits to Pakistan, the strategic benefits and significance of CPEC to China were also extensively discussed which includes the following:

Firstly China is heavily dependent upon the oil from Gulf. CPEC will reduce the transportation distance from 16,000 km to just 5,000 km for its oil imports of which 8-% is transported via ships while 60% comes directly from gulf, resulting in substantial economic savings, more business all around the year and neutralizing the threat of blockade by political rivals.

Secondly CPEC will also give China unparalleled access to the untapped and raw energy rich markets of Central Asia and Afghanistan, These regions are collectively seen as the next big thing in energy and natural resources terms. China envisions utilizing this for securing its energy needs for the next century as well as placing itself as the world leader re energy security by having similar influence and control on the future energy sources as the one currently held by America over the gulf.

Thirdly CPEC will also allow economic benefits to flow to lesser developed and troubled regions of western China including Muslim-majority Xinjiang. Also the enhanced security ties with Pakistan and economic developments, China hopes to eliminate the unrest in Xinjiang.

Last but not the least CPEC will provide China an additional key port, an opening to the world from its western side and the capability to blockade the oil supplies to any future adversaries by having a key naval port at Gwadar. The current attempts to encircle and contain China would therefore become redundant.

Moreover while it must be appreciated that the controversy over the three land routes planned to link Gwadar to Xinjiang is old and settled now with the Government promising to complete the western route passing largely through the underdeveloped Balochistan and KPK first, it is also a lesson for the decision makers. There are outside efforts led by India to disrupt the CPEC, evident by the now well publicized news of a RAW division established with starting allocation of $ 3 billion for the sole purpose of disrupting CPEC. Chahbahar port of Iran and Dubai port of UAE are at risk to become redundant with huge economic costs to them once CPEC is fully operational.

This unfortunately aligns Iranian and Emirati interests with Indian. Moreover quite obviously, the strategic great game with aims of containing China translates into USA having its interests in seeing through it that CPEC does not become successful. With the vested interests of all these regional and global players at stake, it is advised that all local stakeholders be taken into confidence and CPEC branded as a national project instead of belonging to any one party. We must remember that no outside efforts to disrupt can be successful without genuine internal dissatisfaction.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Education: The neglected step child?

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 15th June 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-06-15/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/15-Jun-2015/education-the-neglected-step-child)

Education: The neglected step child?

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

For almost four decades after independence, Pakistan was economically ahead of its’ arch-rival and estranged neighbor India despite the huge market and mass of the latter. 1990’s brought about the reversal with India leaping ahead and now reaching a situation where it has placed itself much ahead of Pakistan economically. While we often refer to the economic exploits of India and commonly cover reasons such as the IT boom and missed opportunities by Pakistan, have we ever thought that perhaps the real reason was education?

Yes, education that has been neglected by every succeeding Pakistani government. On the other hand, the Indian policy makers realized the importance of quality education and ensured appropriate steps were taken to develop their huge human resources, on the basis of which their current economic apparatus is booming. Their continuous investment in education bore fruits and placed India as a leader in IT outsourcing from where it really took off. Rather than becoming stagnant, Indians continued to invest in education with substantial results in bio-technologies, medical and education industries besides others.

On the other hand, while Pakistanis continue to outshine Indians and most of the world on an individual level, the overall state of affairs of its education sector, particularly public sector education, remains dismal. While we often criticize the rising unemployment levels, the lack of quality human resource availability remains a concern for local businesses. Most business owners complain that even the available human resource is not up to the international standards they’re competing against. Add to this the high illiteracy and we are faced with a dire situation demanding immediate corrective measures.

Infact, if you look at all major economies, with the exception of most Gulf countries relying on oil, they’re based on educated and trained human resources. Gone are the days when hard labor alone could turnaround national economies. Without continuously developed and upgraded education, no nation can hope to compete on the modern global stage. What’s more inspiring is that being a Muslim seeking education is mandatory even at the cost of hardships.

Furthermore as the right to education is a fundamental right of every human being recognized by the United Nations, perhaps the member countries should sought to deliver this key right to their citizens. The good thing is that the decision making circles in Pakistan have started saying the right things about education, of late. The problem is the lack of implementation.

All major political parties in Pakistan acknowledge the above facts and affirm their commitment to improving the human resources development in the country via education to ensure less disillusioned youth are attracted to extremism fuelling law and order problems for the nation. Similarly owning to political competition when Mian Shahbaz Sharif led Punjab government proposed substantially increasing the education budget, a feat it did not actually achieve, the PPP’s federal government proposed a budgetary allocation of 7% which was again something of a political statement which was not implemented.

However, it were the high hopes from the electoral promises of Mian Nawaz Sharif led PMLN in the 2013 general elections campaign with promises of 4% allocation of the GDP (not the budget) to the education sector that made segments of intelligentsia excited. Unfortunately it was again not to be. While the 14% increase for education in the 2015-16 budget proposed through the finance bill is a positive step in the right direction, the promised height of 4% of GDP still remains a dream.

Infact the manifestos of all major national parties including PTI and PPP committed to increasing the budgetary allocations for education. The upcoming Sindh and KPK budgets would reveal how much of those promises would be kept. Moreover, post 18th amendment the education sector has largely been within the ambit of provincial governments. This is not to make light the significance of a proper federal allocation to education sector setting a precedent and direction for the provinces to pursue.

What’s tragic is that although it is an established fact that investment in education lays the long-term foundation for economic prosperity and reduction in acute poverty, none of the parties in power have been able to meet their promised increases for the education to date. Unfortunately, election promises have become wish lists. Revenue constraints are almost always cited as a major constraint despite under-utilized budgetary allocations in several sectors including developmental. While one can respect the genuine constraints, perhaps better management of available resources can free up additional revenues for the neglected education sector. Similarly the ever increasing allocations to political gimmick based schemes can serve the nation well if utilized in educational sector.

Rightly or wrongly, some argue that given the improved quality of life, political awareness and a demanding populace resulting from a higher outlay on education, the traditional political class particularly from the rural belts across all political parties, ensure that the declared goals to invest in education by their respective parties are not met. Their common interests in this case ensure an unwritten alliance across the board. It is upto the policy makers and top leadership of these parties to take corrective measures to dispel this notion.

One thing is for sure, if we want to develop Pakistan into a sustainable and independent modern economy, there is no other option but to invest heavily in education and human resource development. This in due time will rid Pakistan of the both extremes it is currently facing as a properly educated nation would realize and implement the way of balance being the best course, as told to us by the greatest leader of all times, Prophet Muhammad PBUH.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Budget: An Objective View

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 08th June 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-06-08/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/08-Jun-2015/budget-an-objective-view)

Federal Budget: An Objective View

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

The wait is over. One of the most awaited events of year, the federal budget was announced on Friday, 05th June 2015. The incumbent government has claimed it to be a historic one as all governments do while the opposition saw only red as the oppositions normally do. The reality however lies somewhere in the middle. There have been some positive steps that should be appreciated while others are left to be desired.

To understand the current budget better we need to review the performance of the last fiscal year as per the Economic Survey 2014-15 released by the finance ministry. As per the data released, inflation has reached the lowest level of this decade with substantial improvements in the foreign exchange reserves. This has resulted in State Bank of Pakistan reducing the discount rate at 7%, the lowest in last four decades.

While the issue of sukuk bonds and receipt of loans and donations were a direct result of governmental decisions, the improvements mentioned above were largely due to a key factor not affected by the governmental policies, that was the reduced oil import costs and resultant reduced inflation in the country due to material reduction in oil prices in the international market. Furthermore, manufacturing and agriculture sector which are the prime drivers of economy and employment opportunities haven’t shown the improvements expected. Private sector is sluggish and the cherished dream of the Tax-GDP ratio in line with the developed economies remained a dream.

With this backdrop and an economic growth rate of 4.24% the federal budget 2015-16 was supposed to overcome the shortcomings mentioned above and in several article before. Some key proposals were provided on these pages on Monday, 1st June 2014 in an article titled “Budgetary Dreams”. It was good to see some of the proposals getting implemented like the announcement of rebate on solar-panels and provision of concessionary loans to small farmers for some solar-powered projects. Similarly the incentives to the construction industry and rebates announced for the rice manufacturers are positive steps too. What’s interesting is that incentives announced has been for small farmers owning less than 12.5 acres of landholding, thereby substantiating the perspective that those over this threshold should have been brought within the tax net.

On the other hand, the critical proposals including bringing agricultural sector within the tax net and using the proceeds to subsidize provision of free or low-cost water and electricity to the sector has been ignored. Creating a new body for providing seeds, fertilizers and all other necessities to farmers at discounted prices due to the volume of business with the mandate of buying all crops from the farmers at the Government approved rates and supplying them to various industries and markets, thereby ensuring the farmers getting their dues while the stockists’ induced shortages and inflation getting stemmed out has not been implemented either.

While almost a 14% increase has been announced in the federal budget for education, which must be appreciated, the promised level of 5% of budget still remains a dream. Similarly the research and human resource development proposals have not been incorporated into the budget despite their importance for a modern national economy. As elaborated in previous write-ups, the impact of this allocation may not have been very drastic in terms of volume post 18th amendment but it would have been a strong signal and precedent for the provinces to pursue.

There was a hue and cry over a paltry 7.5% rise in the salaries of federal employees particularly considering the inflation levels. While the finance ministry has defended this citing certain limitations, there is much left to be desired and an increase of at-least 15% was very much realistic and achievable.

However the most shocking oversight was yet again ignoring the proposals of broadening tax base that has been presented to the various ministry officials for over a decade now. Once again the computerized national identity card (CNIC) has not been declared as the National Tax Number (NTN) and Sales Tax Registration Number (STRN) for all citizens. This could not only have made it extremely easy for any Pakistani to start a business having both the NTN and STRN, hence promoting a culture of entrepreneurship but would also have helped broaden the tiny existing tax base as the number of filers and ultimately taxpayers are forecasted to increase with the increasing documented nature of the businesses.

Continuing from this, the proposal of focusing more on a progressive direct tax regime is deferred once again. While there is no substantial change in the ratio of the direct taxes to indirect taxes, the positive reductions on the focus on indirect taxes is missing. The current policy of relying more on indirect taxes in the shape of customs duty, sales tax, federal excise duty, petroleum levy, gas infrastructure cess, natural gas surcharge and others will give rise to inflation and increased productivity costs leading to lower exports and purchasing power. The costs of this policy certainly outweigh the benefits. Similarly the volume over tax rate policy could have helped increase the tax net and the tax to GDP ratio by substantially reducing the tax rates, making it economically feasible to pay taxes instead of using the costly means to avoid them.

Although the budget is supposed to be a benchmark to act as both a planning and a control tool, this has not been the case for quite some time now. With all sorts of mini-budgets and flexible forecasting, the budget has been reduced to a mere constitutional formality that is met every year. Let us hope that the most important proposals not incorporated in the proposed budget may get the attention of our lawmakers and make way into any policy changes.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

The Cherished Dream of Budget

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 1st June 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-06-01/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/01-Jun-2015/the-cherished-dream-of-budget)

The cherished dream of budget

 (Budgetary Dreams)

Prof Dp

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

“I have a dream”. These were the famous words uttered at a junction of history which saw a drastic change in the United States of America. With the budget looming around the corner, this scribe too has a dream to share with the readers.

The dream starts with the federal budget of Islamic Republic of Pakistan having just been announced. There are widespread celebrations across the country, for many of the promised reforms have been delivered with path for a longer term change laid down. Pakistan Muslim League’s government has fulfilled its commitments despite some very challenging circumstances. Some of the major reforms and steps taken along-with their justifications, as outlined by the finance minister Mr. Ishaq Dar are detailed below.

Tax Facilitation: Several steps have been taken to reform the taxation system and structures. Firstly the computerized national identity card (CNIC) has been declared as the National Tax Number (NTN) and Sales Tax Registration Number (STRN) for all citizens. This has not only made it extremely easy for any Pakistani to start a business having both the NTN and STRN, hence promoting a culture of entrepreneurship but is also expected to help broaden the tiny existing tax base as the number of filers and ultimately taxpayers are forecasted to increase with the increasing documented nature of the businesses.

Corporate and Agricultural Exemptions: Furthermore exemptions on various businesses as well as the agricultural sector have been withdrawn. This is expected to generate substantial additional revenue as these sectors constitute 30 to 40 percent of national economy as per various studies. These sections have previously been out of the tax net without any substantial benefit to the GDP despite the relaxation. Therefore the Government has now decided to instead facilitate the farmers to increase the productivity as outlined below while ensuring the agricultural sector is brought within the tax-net.

Tax Volume over Margin: Moreover to make taxation less cumbersome and support the initiatives aimed at broadening of the tax base, the strategy of volume over margin has been pursued in that the tax rates have been drastically cut for both individuals and businesses to the lowest level in the entire region. This has not only positioned Pakistan as one of the most tax-attractive destinations in the region with substantial forecasted investments expected to create job opportunities in the country particularly in the power, agriculture and textile sectors but has also created an incentive for businesses and individuals to pay their due taxes, being less cumbersome than the cost of avoiding it with the threat of stringent possible penalties.

Free electricity & water for Agriculture: Another long-awaited major reform to turnaround the ailing economy in an agricultural country has also been taken. Keeping in view of the fact that the Indian Punjab’s output and productivity has been surpassing Pakistan’s and contributing materially to the Indian economic strategy, the Ministry of Finance has given its strategic vision to place Pakistan as the agricultural leader in the region. Water and electricity are declared free for agriculture for those farmers having small holdings or renting the land. The taxes raised from agricultural sector are mostly reserved to fund this initiative.

Further Agricultural Reforms: Furthermore a new body has been created to buy all crops from the farmers at the Government approved rates and supply them to various industries and markets, thereby ensuring the farmers will get their due while the stockists’ induced shortages and inflation can be stemmed out. Furthermore all seeds, fertilizers and other necessities can be brought through this body at discounted rates which has already listed all major quality suppliers in its approved lists. The volume of potential business has motivated suppliers to offer discounted rates in the hopes of additional business increasing their profitability and helping them expand, in turn creating more job opportunities.

HR development & Educational Reforms: To promote the culture of learning and human resource development, the listing criteria of stock exchanges now includes a requirement for the companies to annually spend atleast 1% of their total revenue on the education and/or professional trainings of their workers. Also, new non-corporate businesses spending more than 2% of their turnover on the education and training of their workers are offered tax rebates. These steps are topped up by an increased budgetary allocation of 5% to the education. The impact of this allocation is not very drastic post 18th amendment but is a strong signal and precedent for the provinces to pursue.

Further reforms to support HR development, Education & Entrepreneurship: Supporting the drive for education and entrepreneurship, Government has required all banking institutions to lend interest-free, atleast 5% of their total business to students and startups without any guarantees. To provide assurances to the banks, a fund has been launched backed by insurance to provide monthly returns to the banks to compensate for the loss of interest income while the fund along-with the insurance serves to act as a guarantee for abnormal bad debts in this sector.

Short-term Energy Reforms: Besides the CPEC and other energy projects, to address the severe energy shortage in the shorter term, the solar energy sector has been given a tax-break for five years with a requirement to cap margins at 15%, in order to ensure the benefits of the cost reduction will be passed on to the masses. This step is expected to assist in resolving the severe energy shortage problem in the shorter term as the cost of setting up solar energy systems has been one of the biggest hindrances in its widespread use despite Pakistan’s climate been extremely conducive for it. Furthermore windmill energy sector has also been extended the same favor to capitalize on its potential for cheap electricity generation with minimal initial investment and running costs.

It was here, that this writer woke up. The sadness on missing many more positive reforms engulfed me but the realization struck that this is the same sadness that engulfs every Pakistani post budget every year. Let’s hope and pray that this year will be different.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk

Pakistan can’t afford turning CPEC into another KBD (Part II of II)

The following article has been published in Daily Nation, dated 25th May 2015

(E-Paper (Print Edition)http://nation.com.pk/E-Paper/lahore/2015-05-25/page-9)

(Onlinehttp://nation.com.pk/business/25-May-2015/pakistan-can-t-afford-turning-cpec-into-another-kbd-part-ii)

Pakistan can’t afford turning CPEC into another KBD (Part II)

By: Omer Zaheer Meer

Link to Part I (Published): https://omerzaheermeer.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/pakistan-cant-afford-turning-cpec-into-another-kalabagh-dam-part-i-or-ii/

PART II

CPEC is strategically very important for China as it imports 60% of its oil from the Gulf of which 80% is transported by ships travelling over 16,000 kilometers in approximately three months on average through Strait of Malacca to Eastern China. This existing route is not only longer but is ridden with regular attacks by pirates, bad weather and political rivals under American and Indian influence. So the strategic benefits to China can be categorized in four major areas:

  1. China is heavily dependent upon the oil from Gulf for its energy needs. China will reduce the transportation distance from 16,000 km to just 5,000 km resulting in huge economic savings and quicker business all around the year sans the threat of blockade by political rivals.
  2. China will gain access to the untapped markets of the energy rich Central Asian states and Afghanistan which are termed as the next big thing and “Gulf replacement” for coming century. With this early access, developed secure routes and trade ties China can not only secure its energy needs for the next century but place itself as the world leader re energy security by having taps on the future energy sources, a place currently held by the USA.
  3. China will be able to spread its economic development benefits to its lesser developed western areas including the troubled Muslim-majority region of Xinjiang. Furthermore with enhanced security co-operation with Pakistan and economic developmental gains, China hopes to curb its troubles in its underbelly.
  4. Last but not the least, CPEC will not only provide China with an opening to the world from its western side but also ensure that by having a potential naval presence at Gwadar, not only does it hold an additional sea-port but has the capability to blockade the oil supplies to any future adversaries. Any attempts to encircle China such as those currently pursued by USA would become futile in such a scenario.

The benefits to Pakistan are numerous too. Some of the major ones are as below:

  • Uplift and development of badly needed transportation, technical and energy infrastructure.
  • Economic development through industrial and commercial zones setup along the CPEC.
  • Potential to earn billions of $ in transit fees, cargo handling and transportation charges.
  • Becoming economic connectivity hub for the entire region and beyond.
  • Security benefits of Gwadar port as outlined above.
  • With enhanced security ties with China and the economic developmental benefits, Pakistan also expects of stemming out the terror in lesser developed areas of Balochistan and KPK.

Considering all the significant benefits and strategic potential of the CPEC it was unfortunate that it became controversial. The controversy is two pronged. There are those who genuinely felt that the economic benefits of the CPEC were moved away from their provinces to Punjab, being the political constituency of the incumbent Government. However, there are also efforts led by India to disrupt the CPEC as is evident by the recently created desk at RAW with initial allocation of $ 3 billion for this purpose. Furthermore by signing accord to develop Chahbahar port with Iran, India has aligned Iranian interests with itself too. Moreover UAE’s interests also clash with Pakistan’s as the success of CPEC will render Dubai port an invalid. Furthermore, the strategic great game means that USA would rather not have it to see CPEC successful.

None of the external efforts would have been and can be successful without some genuine internal dissent though. Unfortunately the lack of transparency and undue secrecy around the CPEC allowed the propaganda as well as the genuine concerns to grow. Moreover the eastern route was the most talked about during the Chinese President’s visit to Pakistan, further raising concerns of depriving smaller provinces of their due. Absence of KPK, Sindh and Balochistan CM’s while CM Punjab was in attendance didn’t help the situation either. Therefore, KPK Assembly passed a resolution demanding the original route to be retained while Balochistan Assembly’s resolution demanded clarification on CPEC benefits to provinces from the federation. ANP then convened an “all parties’ conference” pressing the controversy and concerns forward.

Though late but some positive steps were taken. A meeting of the leaders of all parliamentary parties was convened to enlighten them on CPEC but the “Safora Goth” tragedy overshadowed the effort. However, the meeting didn’t address concerns with regard to greater transparency as little is revealed regarding the technical and financial parameters of the CPEC projects. The funding sources were also clouded in mystery but it now seems that most of the “investment” is in the form of soft loans with Chinese firms to execute several projects. Federal Minister for Planning and Development Mr. Ahsan Iqbal has claimed that all routes of CPEC are being worked at simultaneously and the western route will be the first one operational. Similarly he has claimed that Sindh and Baluchistan will be the biggest beneficiaries of power generation under CPEC with 36% and 26% shares respectively.

The government should use media to educate masses about the above claims as well as share why the alternate routes were developed. Was it to ensure connectivity across the country with developed areas, out of Chinese concerns for safety of passage in case of trouble on the route via Balochistan (as mentioned by some Chinese scholars in their write-ups in international media), to cater for the huge trade volume expected or some other reasons? Also more transparency such as clarifying that why the current PSDP contains allocations under CPEC only for the eastern route and not the others will help dispel the concerns and negative propaganda. CPEC is a game changer for Pakistan and the Government has the responsibility to ensure its successful completion. Pakistan cannot bear the potential loss and the dire consequences of CPEC turning into another “Kalabagh Dam”.

The author is Director of the think-tank “Millat Thinkers’ Forum”. He is a leading economist, CFA Charterholder, experienced fellow Chartered Certified Accountant and anti-money laundering expert with international exposure who can be reached on Twitter and www.myMFB.com @OmerZaheerMeer or omerzaheermeer@hotmail.co.uk